向成功人士取經？當心「生存者偏差」Learn from the successful? Beware of survivorship bias

We would like to learn from the successful, but if we don’t take into account “survivorship bias,” we might not see the whole picture.

Our attention is often drawn to those who achieve success “despite the odds.” For example, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg achieved success despite not finishing university. This kind of story is encouraging, but it is just another example of survivorship bias.

Figures show that the median annual salary for a graduate was $43,000 and $30,000 for a non-graduate in the UK. Although a degree does not guarantee success, looking at the whole picture rather than just the survivors can help you make wise decisions.

友善讓你懂 │ 解說

我們傾向從成功者身上學習秘訣，但如果沒考量到「生存者偏差」，反而可能會讓我們看不到事情全貌。

一般來說，大家的注意力通常會被那些「經歷千辛萬苦」的成功人士奮鬥故事吸引，例如 Facebook 執行長 Mark Zuckerberg 沒有唸完大學，依舊獲得成功。這類故事很激勵人心，但其實也只是另一個生存者偏差而已。

如果看真實數據統計，英國的大學畢業生年薪中位數約 4.3 萬美元，而沒有大學學位者則是約 3 萬美元。雖然文憑無法保證成功，但如果在做任何決定前，都可以看看事物的全貌再選擇，而非只關注少數成功人士，會讓你所下的每個決定更有效。

輕鬆帶著走 │學習

See the whole picture 或 looking at the whole picture 指的是「看見事物的全貌或大局」，而非只是以管窺天，是常見於英文文章中的用語。

例句：Looking at the whole picture can help you understand the issue.
看到事物的全貌，會幫助你理解這個議題。

本篇其他相關單字，介紹如下：

• take into account 把某人事物考量在內
• survivorship bias 生存者偏差，指只看到成功者、未看到其他失敗者
• despite the odds 儘管遇到困難、碰到挫折
• encouraging (adj.) 鼓舞人心
• median (n.) 中位數（統計學）
• guarantee (v.) 保證